Research Brief

Population Growth in Silicon Valley

May 2015

This report examines Silicon Valley’s population dynamics, including overall population growth, growth by city and county, birth and death rates, and the changing population composition in terms of age and gender. It also examines recent California Department of Finance (DOF) population and K-12 enrollment projections through 2023.

Additionally, this report examines population trends as they relate to the recent economic recession. Silicon Valley’s population dynamics are closely tied to the economy overall, including employment, income, cost of living and other factors; in particular, in and out migration, as well as birth and death rates, vary with changes in economic growth and development, which affect both behavioral and environmental change and influence population dynamics.

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1. Based on the July 1, 2014 estimate of the United States population from the United States Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP) of 318,857,056 | 2. Based on estimates from the California Department of Finance E-1: City/County Population Estimates with Annual Percent Change for January 1, 2014 | 3. Joint Venture Silicon Valley, 2015 Silicon Valley Index (www.siliconvalleyindicators.org) | 4. Based on the FY 2013-14 average gross water consumption per capita for Silicon Valley of 135.345 gallons per person per day, from the 2015 Silicon Valley Index | 5. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Water Trivia Facts (http://water.epa.gov/learn/kids/drinkingwater/water_trivia_facts.cfm) | 6. Based on the CalRecycle statewide disposal estimate for 2013 of 4.4 pounds per resident per day | 7. Based on the weight of an average African elephant of 12,000 pounds from the World Wildlife Foundation | 8. According to the July 1, 2014 population estimates for Mississippi (2,994,079) and Iowa (3,107,126) from the United States Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP) | 9. Using population estimates from the United States Census Bureau, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Incorporated Places of 50,000 or More, Ranked by July 1, 2013 Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013 – United States – Places of 50,000+ Population, which includes population estimates for New York City (8,405,837) and Los Angeles (3,884,307) | 10. Based on the July 1, 2013 estimate of Manhattan’s population (1,626,159) and the July 1, 2014 estimate of Delaware’s population (935,614) from the United States Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP) | 11. Based on the United States Census Bureau California population estimates for 1910 (2,377,549) and 1920 (3,426,861), via the University of Virginia Historical Census Browser | 12. Based on the population estimate for all Silicon Valley cities in 1960 (1,146,994) and 1970 (1,769,041) from the California Department of Finance 1850-2010 Historical U.S. Census Populations of Counties and Incorporated Cities/Towns in California, revised March 25, 2013 | 13. Approximated based on the share of 2013 San Mateo and Santa Clara County residents (34.5%) who commuted to work in their own cars from the United States Census Bureau American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates | 14. Based on the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) per capita for 2013 (24.6 miles per person per day) reported in the 2015 Silicon Valley Index | 15. Using the Earth circumference of 24,873.6 miles (NASA Solar System Exploration) | 16. Based on the 2014 regional GDP per capita in Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties of $82,895 using data from Moody’s Economy.com, assuming a direct linear correlation | 17. At the 2013 average household size of 2.91 for Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties from the United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, using a weighted average based on number of households, a population of 3 million would amount to 1,027,211 households